(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) During the tenure of US President Trump, US-China relations have reached their lowest point in more than a decade. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Trump has repeatedly used the "Chinese virus" to refer to the virus as coming from China. His government has also remained tough on trade, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and South China Sea issues.
Confronting China has become one of the main axis of Trump's re-election campaign. He has constantly labelled his opponent Biden as pro-China during his campaigns and debates, criticizing him for his weak attitude towards Beijing. However, the Biden team has set the tone and will try to remove Trump's anti-communist sign during the campaign and portray itself as a leader who is truly willing to confront China.
According to the latest foreign policy content received by Deutsche Welle from Biden's team, they will make an argument that Trump, who appears to be tough on China, is actually being used by Beijing. Biden will also repeatedly emphasize how Trump's "selfishness" and "uncertainty" can weaken the power and international influence of the United States in the following activities. They may even claim that China's "big change unseen in a century" refers to Trump's presidency of the United States.
Compared with Trump, who has been "withdrawing from the group", Biden advocates returning to international organizations, actively drawing and mobilizing allies to put pressure on China, and reshaping the United States' leadership in the world. Biden will also continue to speak for Hong Kong and Xinjiang and prevent human rights and democracy from becoming commercial exchanges. But at the same time, Biden believed that the United States should cooperate with China on issues such as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, and global health in accordance with US interests.
It is not surprising that Biden will play such a strategy. Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Americans' negative perceptions of China have reached a record high, and major US allies have also become increasingly less confident in Beijing and Xi Jinping.
Who does China want to be elected?
However, in the eyes of several experts, it is not so easy for Biden to steal Trump's anti-China card. Biden is also a candidate for Beijing. According to Derek Grossman, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, an American think tank, Beijing believes that Biden is more talkative than the aggressive Trump.
He told Deutsche Welle: “China may believe that Biden will try to re-adjust bilateral relations, even in terms of rhetoric.” But even with Biden in power, Grismann believes that before the core dispute between China and the United States is resolved, Both sides just continue to compete. He mentioned that the cold war state of full-scale confrontation between the United States and China is likely to be unavoidable, but the two countries are highly dependent on each other economically, and the two sides still have to continue cooperation in certain areas.
As for Trump, Gresman observed that Beijing had high hopes for him in 2016, hoping to reach a deal that would benefit China under his administration. However, the Trump administration's "Indo-Pacific strategy" emphasizes maintaining freedom and openness from China's coercion, and thus conflicts with China's interests, causing Beijing to constantly fight back. Coupled with the US-China trade war and accountability for the epidemic, Beijing has received no real benefits.
Further reading: German-language media: How China benefits from the US election
Zhang Jiadun, the author of "China is about to collapse," also believes that Biden is the American president Beijing hopes. He said that it is difficult for Biden to convince others that he will be tougher on China than Trump.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he said: "Chinese officials seem to have supported Biden, so they must think that Biden will not be as tough on them as Trump." And he mentioned that under Trump's continued administration It is not impossible for the United States to "decouple" from China. He believes that Chinese state media have repeatedly reiterated that China and the United States cannot decouple, that is, the day Beijing is worried about decoupling is coming.
Zhang Jiadun also said that the United States and China are the weak and the strong. The leadership of the Communist Party of China he said would not worry about any personal relationships, and called them "relentless pragmatists." He said: "They respect those who are stronger than them, despise the weak, and don't care about each other's personal feelings."
In his eyes, China has made it clear that it does not want Trump to be re-elected, and even mobilize state and Communist Party machinery, as well as "Internet trolls" and "zombie accounts" to help Biden propagate. He cited a spamming platform called Spamoflage Dragon, which had been attacking Trump before being closed by YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.
Is Trump really anti-China?
Rather than looking at Biden and Trump alone, Lev Nachman, a visiting scholar on the Fulbright Plan of the United States, said in an exclusive interview with Deutsche Welle that to analyze the impact of the two elections on China, in addition to their personal positions, The role of the government should also be included.
He said: "If you think of Trump as an individual, his relationship with Xi Jinping has always been very dynamic. His government seems to be pushing for a more aggressive policy direction that challenges the CCP."
Indeed, from a personal point of view, Trump has repeatedly referred to Xi Jinping as a friend in the past three years, indicating that the two have a good relationship. Even since the outbreak, he has implied that the friendship between the two is no longer, but he has never been sharp in his words Publicly criticized Xi Jinping himself.
In addition, under Trump’s administration, his family benefited from it and got the opportunity to enter the Chinese market. For example, after Trump and Xi Jinping met in the Sea Lake Manor in April 2017, his daughter got the opportunity in China within two years. More than a dozen trademark rights. The loan relationship between the Trump family business and the Bank of China had been inextricably linked long before he was elected president of the United States.
Different from the existing image of Trump resisting China, Nan Le believes that Trump once followed in the footsteps of the Chinese Communist Party to a certain extent and talked with Xi Jinping on the phone when needed.
But he emphasized that the logic of the Trump administration's operation is completely different. He said: “You have people like Pompeo who are more cautious about Xi Jinping in policy and more practical than Trump’s proposal.” He observed that compared to Trump’s elusive ideas, his government and The entire Republican Party has always been tough on China.
Looking back at the future policy agenda outlined by the U.S. Republican Party, one of the main points is to "end dependence on China." The Trump administration also proposed to bring 1 million manufacturing jobs from China back to the United States during the second term and provide tax incentives for returning to the United States. They will also prevent companies purchasing from China from undertaking federal government contracts and say that "China must take all responsibility for the spread of the virus to the world."
Biden really kissed?
Then come to Biden. He met with Xi Jinping eight times when he was the vice president of the United States. The two also had personal relationships. However, Nanle analyzed that as an individual, Biden is less likely to be influenced by "a few phone calls" or "personal relationships." Since he became the Democratic Party's US presidential candidate, criticism of Xi Jinping has increased day by day, and he has also described the Chinese leader as "a villain with no democratic concept".
However, Biden’s second son, Hunter, was reported to be closely related to China. He once held up to 10% of the equity of Bohai Huamei Equity Investment Fund Management Company and served as a co-director of the company. He resigned after being exposed by the Trump camp. The American writer Peter Schweizer also questioned his good relationship with high-level Chinese in the documentary "Riding a Dragon: Uncovering the Chinese Secrets of the Bidens".
However, according to Nan Le’s view, Biden’s time and space environment when he was vice president was very different from today. He believes that Biden will govern according to the Democratic Party’s guidelines and the Democratic Party’s China policy, compared to Trump, who has a strong personal touch. Tougher than ever.
The party platform adopted by the Democratic Party on August 20th has strong words about China in terms of economy, technology, internet, environmental protection, military, human rights, etc., and emphasizes the need to cooperate with allies. On the Taiwan issue, the Democratic Party’s platform deleted the “one-China principle” and mentioned that cross-strait issues will be handled in accordance with the “Taiwan Relations Law”, and the issues of Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet will be locked down to account for China according to law.
As the countdown to the U.S. election, both candidates want to rise to the top as Chinese opponents. Regardless of whether they are elected from south to north, Beijing will face an American leader who will strictly examine and strongly criticize the Chinese government in the next four years.
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